Breaking Brexit

Jon Browning 14.06.2016

On the BBC I came across an article talking about the effect on the sterling if the UK leaves the EU. There is also a similar article on the effect on pensions, and an article on job cuts in JP Morgan if the out vote is successful. These are just three of many.

It is not surprising that with all the press coverage on Brexit there is so much uncertainty in the polls. According to the Financial Times polls over the last nine months, there has been a consistent swing between the in and out vote. However in the nine months prior, the polls showed that the majority of cases were in favour of the UK staying in the EU. This is an interesting statistic but not an all too surprising one due to the media coverage and the information overload causing some people to change the way they are going to vote and for others it is making the decision more difficult.

The polls certainly influence which way the public vote which leads me to think, "'Are the results of a vote really a fair representation of what the public are actually thinking and feeling?"

To quote the New York Times,“Over the past two years, election polling has had some spectacular disasters, however it is our only method of gaining the voters mood."

Both sides have made convincing arguments that will lead to a closer vote when many first thought when David Cameron first announced his decision to hold a referendum in April 2013. The one clear positive of the intense media coverage is that there has been a surge of people applying to vote. The outcome of the referendum isn’t clear and consequently the impact on recruitment is difficult to predict.

The one thing that most seem to agree on is if we leave the EU the uncertainty will plague the markets for a couple of years at least.

Jon Browning's picture
Team Leader | Project and Change Management Recruitment
jbrowning@morganmckinley.com